For a  while The Return of the King was one of only three films that had grossed over a billion dollars worldwide. With inflation and surcharges for 3D movies, there are now ten films on that list. (We’re also talking dollars unadjusted for inflation, so the billion-plus club isn’t as hard to crack as it used to be.)

Box Office Mojo recently ran a story predicting which films currently in production are likely to reach that level of success. Not surprisingly, both parts of The Hobbit are mentioned as possibilities. As the author points out, “It probably won’t be as well-attended as Return of the King, though it doesn’t need to be to reach $1 billion, thanks to its 3D premiums and nine years of ticket-price inflation.”

I’m not convinced that 3D premiums are helping films anymore. I recently posted an entry on Observations on Film Art where I pointed out that since about May, theaters showing 3D versions of films are actually making less money than the ones showing 2D versions. Exhibitors are apparently starting to notice this trend, and more are choosing to show 2D versions. Variety reported this morning that Spy Kids: All the Time in the World took third place in the Friday box-office tally: “The summer’s new norm is to make about 45% of grosses off 3D screens, though that figure could be even lower this weekend with so many pics vying for 3D play and so many of “Spy Kids'” engagements opting for 2D.” (Fright Night and Conan the Barbarian also were released yesterday in 3D and 2D versions.)

If fewer exhibitors choose to show 3D prints of films, eventually the smaller number of theaters showing 3D will attract fans of that system, and those theaters will presumably start to make money again. But whether that income will be enough for studios to want to pay the extra money needed to make films in 3D in the first place is anyone’s guess. It’s quite possible that by the time the first part of The Hobbit comes out, 3D won’t be an important factor in boosting it over the $1 billion mark.

I for one got tired of 3D pretty fast. Apart from Werner Herzog’s wonderful The Cave of Forgotten Dreams, I haven’t seen a 3D print of a film since Up back in 2009. (Herzog not only found the perfect use for 3D, but his images have a more convincing, rounded three-dimensional look than anything in Avatar.) My suspicion is that The Hobbit will be a success for the same reasons that LOTR was.

If you’re tall and slim and gorgeous, are a New Zealand citizen or have a work permit there, and have a very flexible schedule, you might be interested in a casting call for elf extras that has appeared online. (The “gorgeous” part isn’t actually in the posting, but I think we all remember what the elves in LOTR looked like. I once met one, actually, a young chap who worked as a desk clerk in a hotel. He was pretty good-looking, even without the blond wig and make-up.)

An interview with Christopher Lee was posted on YouTube several days ago. He mentions having recently completed four days of filming on The Hobbit. That’s near the beginning of the interview. Later he refers to having had to shaved his beard in order to have Saruman’s long beard attached. He says he’s now growing his own beard back, which suggests that he doesn’t anticipate doing any further filming on The Hobbit, though one would think possibly next year there would be some pickups shot.

Thanks to davidlean for noticing this video and starting a thread about it on TheOneRing.net‘s message boards; there’s a discussion of it going on there.

Larry D. Curtis, one of the mainstays of TheOneRing.net, has posted a piece on Movies.com, summing up the current state of Hobbit film–who’s where geographically, what’s been going on lately, and what’s likely to happen soon. Larry believes that shooting will resume soon, and on a scale considerably greater than during the first phase.

There have been rumors circulating that Ian Holm and Elijah Wood are in London, presumably for some filming on The Hobbit. Given that Christopher Lee is in the cast and had previously said that he would not take the very long trip to New Zealand, there is an assumption that his scenes are being done there as well. (Frodo and Bibo never encounter Saruman in the LR film or the Hobbit book, so it seems unlikely that they’re doing scenes together.)

Today Der Herr der Ringe website says there have been sightings of Peter Jackson in London. Moreover, on July 7, two photos of Peter Jackson beside a car parked outside The Soho Hotel were posted here and here (in a Peter Jackson file on contactmusic.com).

What all this adds up to is still to be seen. In case it’s relevant, Soho is an area of London where a lot of film distribution offices and film-production facilities are located. Not shooting studios, but places where sound recording, special effects, editing, and so on happen.

(Thanks to Paulo Pereira for the heads-up on these!)

I assume a lot of you have been examining the production video posted yesterday very, very closely. If you don’t want to take the trouble, newsfrombree has posted an analysis of key shots over on TheOneRing.net. There are quite a few frames to click on and get a much larger view. In addition, RoseCotton has posted a transcript of the whole thing on the Message Boards there. (Don’t forget that you need to be registered and signed in to post comments there.)

Peter Jackson has posted Hobbit production video number 2 on his Facebook page. There’s quite a variety of material, including a glimpse of Gollum’s cave with the actors present. Also Bilbo talking to Elrond at Rivendell. A fair amount of the footage near the beginning shows PJ and Andy Serkis talking about the fact that the latter is a second-unit director on The Hobbit, in addition to once again performing Gollum.

The occasion for the video was the end of shooting on the first “block” of principal photography. As everyone knows, the filming was suspended for the summer (New Zealand’s winter months). Liz Tan, first assistant director on the second unit, announces that everyone is due back to resume shooting on Monday, September 5–which I don’t think we knew that precisely before. That all takes up the first roughly two and a half minutes.

The video then shifts into brief statements by cast and crew members about what they intend to do with their breaks. The answers range from golfing to performing in plays. Then back to Peter, talking about he’s going to be working, not going on vacation. At about 4:30 in, you can catch a glimpse of actual footage in an editing suite on an editing table. Some of the work involves design: “So in some respects, I’m back into pre-production again, but also, I’m in post-production because I’m editing.”

The second half is mainly footage of the “South Island Recce” that we heard about back when it started in June. (“Recce,” pronounced reckee,” is short for “reconnaissance,” and its used both in the military and in filmmaking, the latter referring to location scouting.) There’s some spectacular scenery involved, and some humor from Peter. Some of the locations are places that the group have seen before and which they’re returning to; presumably those are close to being picked for the film. Not only do they have to find locations that fit the film’s action, but there has to be room for the catering, make-up, and many other facilities that need to be set up adjacent to the place where the actual shooting will take place.

Some specific information about locations is given. The mountainous area around Mount Cook will be used, as well as some landscapes near Dunedin on the east coast of the South Island. One key goal of the scouting is to find a forest suitable for Mirkwood. We see Peter and the others photographing rivers, looking for the perfect place for thirteen barrels containing dwarves to float by. “There’s plenty of New Zealand that we haven’t seen yet,” as Peter says. The country may seem small, but most of it was not used for LOTR.

The video was shot in HD and looks great, with excerpts from the LOTR music used for the soundtrack. Highly entertaining and informative. It lasts about 10 1/2 minutes.

New Line Cinema has posted a photo on Facebook; it shows three of the dwarves, in costume: JED BROPHY as Nori, ADAM BROWN as Ori and MARK HADLOW as Dori.

The text underneath adds:

These three brothers, all sons of the same mother, could not be more different from each other. Dori, the oldest, spends much of his time watching out for Ori, the youngest; making sure he’s not caught a chill or got himself killed by Wargs or Goblins. Nobody quite knows what Nori gets up to most of the time, except that it’s guaranteed to be dodgy and quite probably, illegal. Dori, Nori and Ori are intensely loyal to each other – and whilst they are perfectly happy fighting amongst themselves, woe-betide anyone who means harm to one of these brothers.

This, plus the considerable contrast in appearances among the three, suggests that New Line’s approach to publicizing the film will be to try and establish the individual characters of the dwarves in the minds of filmgoers well before the first part premieres next year.

This tactic reminds me of the short ads that New Line ran on TV during the breaks from the first-ever infotainment show on the LOTR. Each was devoted to explaining briefly who some of the many important characters were. Those were aimed at non-readers of the book. Given that I had been reading the book for 35 years by then, it was amusing to see ads asking “Who is Gandalf?” or “Who is Frodo?” But obviously the vast majority of people who bought tickets to see the trilogy had little or no idea who these characters were. For The Hobbit, the problem is a considerably bigger challenge, since some of the 13 dwarves remain fairly difficult to distinguish from each other, even for a long-time reader.

I expect that we’ll see many interviews with the actors playing the dwarves, trying to convey the same simple character traits that the New Line text above does. As always, I sympathize with the actors, who will have to go through hundreds of similar press interviews hearing the same questions and trying to answer with the same information expressed slightly differently each time!

Stuff.co.nz has posted a short item about a possibly noxious substance that has seeped from the ground in the area of the Stone Street Studios where The Hobbit is being filmed. An environmental team will be investigating. The studios were previously part of an old paint factory, so there could be all sorts of pollutants that got into the ground there.

What struck me was the final line of the story: “A Weta spokesman said there was no filming yesterday, with a gap in work until August.” Maybe I’ve missed something, but I don’t recall seeing that specific a time period mentioned for the current suspension of filming. We have seen remarks by various actors who have returned to the U.K., including Andy Serkis and Ian McKellen. Indeed, Ian today posted this brief notice on his Facebook page: “THE SYNDICATE will play in Bath in September.” (It’s a black comedy that he’ll be starring in.) So it sounds like no Gandalf scenes will be filmed until more like October or later.

With all the disruption of New Zealand air traffic due to ash from the Chilean volcano, it’s probably just as well. And it’s going on for winter in that part of the world.

Ian has a post on his Facebook page that indicates he’s back in England for rehearsals for The Syndicate:

First rehearsal for “The Syndicate” and a read-through of Mike Poulton’s transation of Eduardo De Filippo’s Neopolitan drama. Reunion with director Sean Mathis and Brendan O’Hea (“Waiting for Godor” 2010): with Cheri Lunghi and Michael Pennington (RSC 1976): with Oliver Cotton (“Ross” 1970)–indeed with Eduardo himself, who I joined in a gala performance in Milan c. 1983

This break wasn’t unexpected. Ian let us know back in February that he would be taking a break from filming The Hobbit to participate in this production at the Chichester Festival Theater. I blogged about it here.