Peter Jackson is currently in Germany doing publicity for The Lovely Bones. The German site Moviereporter is quoting him as saying this about the Hobbit filming (and I quote from the translation helpfully provided by TheOneRing.net):

“We’re currently working on the second script which we hope to have completed by the end of this year or beginning of next.  When the scripts are completed, we can begin with the exact calculation of the necessary budget.  We hope to start filming in the middle of next year. However, we’ve received no green light from the studio yet.”

This confirms what has become increasingly apparent as time went by without announcements about the project. With the second script in progress, it’s not surprising that principal photography would be delayed by perhaps four or five months from the originally announced launch in March.

[Dec 3: The Moviereporter link has gone dead; I leave it there in case the page is restored.]

Perhaps the announced release date for part one will remain December, 2011. Still, I find it difficult to believe that such a delay would not push back the release of the film. So much of the work going into a special-effects-heavy movie comes in the post-production stage, with CGI being a time-consuming task (as fans who have been through the supplements in the extended-version DVDs know).

We might remember that LOTR was not released when it was originally supposed to be. In August, 1998, when it took over production of the trilogy, New Line announced one year of principal photography to begin in mid-1999. In reality the shooting lasted for about 14 months and began in October, 1999. There were months of pick-up shots for all three parts. The original Christmas-summer-Christmas release pattern, which called for three massive films in a span of one year, was later changed to annual Christmas releases, or a two-year period. This sort of change isn’t uncommon in the industry, and a delay seems better than a rushed job.

Note: The Herr der Ringe website is announcing July as the start date. The author also speculates that the delay is due to MGM’s financial troubles. My own guess would be that it results from the second script not being finished yet. The full budget can’t be calculated without the full two-part script, and the studio won’t greenlight a film without knowing the budget. So far Warner Bros. has been covering expenses and can well afford to go on doing so for quite some time.

[December 1: Sharon Waxman is reporting that "executives close to the project" are saying that the first part will not come out until 2012. This remains a rumor at this point, but as I suggested above, it would not be surprising to see it confirmed.]