On Friday TheOneRing.net posted a story about Variety’s story of the same day, concerning New Line’s successful transition into making a smaller number of medium-budget genre films. Many of those who clicked on the link, however, must have run afoul of Variety’s new pay-wall. Being a subscriber, I’ll pull out some more bits of information and try to tease some inferences out of them.  (For those who subscribe or who want to sign up to get a few Variety articles free, the story is here.)

The story begins by talking about how well the new, pared-down New Line has been doing as a sub-division of Warner Bros.:

Now, with a leaner New Line having banked a run of solid performers (mostly romantic comedies such as “He’s Just Not That Into You” and “17 Again”) and a genuine blockbuster (“Sex and the City”), the division is looking to return to its glory days of “The Lord of the Rings” trilogy with a pair of “Hobbit” prequels directed by Guillermo Del Toro.

In short, it’s tentpole time at New Line again — but with calculated bottom-line prudence shaping the rest of its slate.

Despite its longstanding reputation for seat-of-the-pants decisionmaking, president Toby Emmerich says the new New Line is a more calculating enterprise these days. With only six films a year — about half the pre-2008 slate — Emmerich and production president Richard Brener say no to much more than they used to.

The more discerning approach seems to have paid off: Of 17 total films released since the division was subsumed into Warner Bros., “Semi-Pro” and “Inkheart” have been the only underperformers.

New Line is continuing in this same vein:

New Line took in more than $950 million in grosses worldwide last year from eight films, led by “He’s Just Not That Into You,” “17 Again,” “Ghosts of Girlfriends Past” and “Friday the 13th.”

The unit will release just five films in 2010, the first year for which its projects had to go through the greenlight process via parent Warner Bros. It’s got four romantic comedies — “Valentine’s Day,” “Sex and the City 2,” “Going the Distance” and “Hall Pass” — and a relaunch of “Nightmare on Elm Street.”

Then there’s The Hobbit. Toby Emmerich was involved with the production of LOTR, though his name is not familiar to fans, since he didn’t participate in the making-of supplements for the extended DVD editions. We tend of think of Mark Ordesky when we think of New Line and LOTR. But Variety points out:

Emmerich was promoted to head of production at the point in 2001 when the first cut of “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the King” was prepped for post-production, and he oversaw the pic’s reshoots.

“It’s similar, though this is more expensive and much more of a known entity,” says Emmerich of the “LOTR” ramp-up vs. the advance work being done on “The Hobbit.”

That’s a pretty interesting statement. Emmerich says The Hobbit will be more expensive than LOTR. That suggest on the one hand that New Line, though slimmed down, is not skimping on the budget for the two-part “prequel.” Not much of a surprise there, since the studio is dealing with what are more than likely to be two huge hits. On the other hand, the remark suggests that New Line is well into budgeting at least the first part of the film, based on the script turned in last year.

More information on The Hobbit comes toward the end of the story:

New Line’s “LOTR” financing scheme, in which foreign presales provided much of the budget for the trilogy, is not how “Hobbit” is being bankrolled. Instead, New Line shares financing rights with MGM/UA, which bought the original rights in 1969; the complication this time around is that the Lion could conceivably sell those rights as part of MGM’s restructuring.

Once the script for the second film is in — Jackson and his longtime collaborators Fran Walsh and Philippa Boyens are working on it with Del Toro — New Line will work up a budget for both films and start casting. New Line exec Michael Disco, who was once Emmerich’s assistant, will oversee for the studio.

Horn won’t predict when the first of the two “Hobbit” films will be out, but says the most probable scenario would be a release in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Those who have read The Frodo Franchise will be familiar with the difference between financing through presales and through studio support. (For a general summary of the studio dealings and financing of LOTR, see Chapter 1, and Chapter 9 on the fact that the trilogy was an independent film.)

The story claims that the script for the second half of The Hobbit is still being written. We’ve heard a number of times that it was on the verge of being turned in and that it would go to the studio heads around Christmas-time. Whatever the status of the script, though, we know that work is going forward on the film’s design, pre-viz, and other preparations.

The news that Michael Disco will oversee The Hobbit for New Line is important. That should mean that he’ll play the same role on these two films as Mark Ordesky did on LOTR. If so, he’ll be a key player in dealings between the filmmakers and the studio. I think it’s probably crucial that Disco is a New Line person, not a Warner Bros. one. He started as Emmerich’s assistant and has worked in various producer roles on many of the studio’s films since 2006.

His appointment hints that Alan Horn and Jeff Robinov, heads of Warner, are so far carrying through their declaration that they aren’t going to impose changes on the way New Line is currently operating. Given the success of LOTR, they would be unwise not to let the production of The Hobbit proceed in much the same way.

Finally, the timing of the first part’s release. There had already been a hint that it would come in 2012 rather than 2011, as originally announced. I’ve said before that I think a two-part epic film beginning principal photography c. May of this year and depending on extensive computer effects would be hard-put to come out at the end of next year. For one thing, it would hardly allow time for pickup filming, which was so important for LOTR. Peter Jackson has been cautious about this, usually saying that as far as he knew the release date was still 2011. But the previously announced date is always official until a new official date is announced. I still think 2012 is more realistic, and I’d rather have a frustrating wait than see the film rushed through without sufficient time for the people in Wellington to work their magic on it.