Yesterday TheOneRing.net linked to a story on stuff.co.nz written by Gordon Campbell, a veteran news and media analyst, called “On the making of The Hobbit.” It’s perhaps the most extensive attempt to sum up the current situation in terms of the MGM situation and the ramifications of Peter Jackson’s potential assuming of the director’s hat. For those who have not been following every little twist and turn of the drama for the past few months, it’s a good way to catch up.

It’s an excellent article, but let me make a few small corrections and clarifications.

First, Campbell writes that MGM’s current choice is “to sell out to Time Warner who made the highest bid in an auction in March, or soldier on and try to run the studio themselves with re-financing and hired help …” As I understand it, the recent Lionsgate meeting with MGM was to put forward a proposal for a merger. That’s how the Los Angeles Times reported it. If that were to go through, Lionsgate would not be “hired help” but a partner within the same overall company.

Second, Campbell says that MGM’s assets include “the next James Bond film.” Actually MGM owns the Bond franchise, which is considerably more valuable.

Third, he points out that the Wall Street Journal sees Spyglass as the leading contender to take over the running of a restructured MGM. That may well be the case. The Lionsgate meeting, however, involved what I believe was the first formal proposal put forward since the bidding process was closed months ago. That might seem to make Lionsgate the leading contender du jour. Yet, as Campbell points out, the merger would require the approval of Lionsgate’s main shareholder, Carl Icahn, who seems dead set against the idea. So it’s definitely complicated.

Fourth, Campbell also points up the tangle of players who have or have had some share in the Hobbit rights. This is basically accurate, but it might give the impression that Saul Zaentz and Harvey Weinstein would have the same sorts of rights as other parties like Warner Bros. and MGM. There’s a notable difference. What Saul Zaentz bought back in 1976 was the production and distribution rights to The Lord of the Rings and the production rights to The Hobbit. Had he but paid that extra fee and bought the Hobbit distribution rights as well, we would not be in this current situation. What he then sold Harvey Weinstein (i.e., the Miramax company) in 1997 was the same thing: LOTR production and distribution, Hobbit production. MGM retained the Hobbit distribution rights and does to this day. [July 16: Clarification. As Voronwë the Faithful has pointed out to me over on the TORN Message Boards, what Zaentz sold Miramax and Miramax then sold New Line was a limited-term control over those rights, subject to various conditions. Zaentz is still the underlying owner of the rights. As I said, it's complicated.]

So Saul Zaentz and Harvey Weinstein will be owed some money, though less than the other players. Disney might well get some as well, since Disney owned Miramax at the time when Zaentz sold it the various rights described above. (Still does, though the company may change hands any moment.) Michael Eisner unwisely shared the 5% of gross minus costs that New Line had to pay to get the rights from Miramax: Disney got 2.5%, the Weinstein brothers 2.5%. I suspect that’s how the deal will work this time, too, but maybe not.

Finally, it’s Lionsgate, not Lion’s Gate.

Campbell gives some interesting speculations on how The Hobbit would fit into Peter’s career if he chooses to direct it. Whether or not he turns out to be right, it’s interesting to get a Kiwi perspective on the situation.

Variety reports that, as expected, MGM today asked its approximately 140 creditors for a sixth extension of its principal and interest repayments, which are due July 14. The situation remains pretty much as it was, with MGM rumored to have talked with Lionsgate, Summit, and Spyglass as to whether one of them might partner with the studio to restructure it. Its current debt is $3.7 billion. Time Warner’s bid of around $1.5 billion to buy the struggling company remains on the table.

The new move was expected. I was interested in this comment, though: “Peter Jackson’s been in talks to take over as director for the two “Hobbit” films in the wake of Guillermo del Toro departing. Co-financer has denied del Toro’s assertion that the delays in getting a “Hobbit” greenlight were due to a lack of a resolution to MGM’s ownership situation.”

“Co-financier” here must mean Warner Bros. New Line, now a production unit under Warner, has been denying all along that the Hobbit delays are connected to MGM’s financial woes. I’ve been skeptical all along that Warner Bros. would get itself into a co-production deal with MGM, already known at the time as a company in trouble, without building all sorts of contingency arrangements into the contract. Maybe I’m sticking my neck out too far here, but I still think that whatever happens to MGM, The Hobbit will get made. There may be other causes for the delay that we know nothing about.

On July 1, The Dominion Post (Wellington’s newspaper) ran a story about the friendship between Guillermo del Toro and Ian McKellen. I suppose this story has been linked elsewhere, but I didn’t see it on TORN, so I thought I’d mention it. It’s partly about how Ian is staying at Guillermo’s 2nd house, his “man cave,” in Wellington, while performing in Waiting for Godot.

Ian also let drop one crumb of information: “He understood Sir Peter Jackson was in Britain casting for The Hobbit, while negotiations continued on who would direct the two-part film in Wellington. Though nobody has been officially cast in The Hobbit, Sir Ian and Andy Serkis, who plays Gollum, have said they will star.”

I suppose this statement has to be regarded as a rumor until we get some sort of confirmation, but it’s more hopeful than the other information, also mostly rumors, that I posted about yesterday.

By the way, the brief clip that accompanies the story makes no mention of The Hobbit.

Over the past several days there have been some hints that the Hobbit film project is not only being delayed but that there is a serious possibility that it may be abandoned.

On July 1, The Hollywood Reporter ran a story saying that MGM will request a sixth extension on its current July 15 deadline for a payment of $250 million principal payment on its debt, as well as $200 million in interest. The request would come about a week before the deadline. One bit of news here is that MGM might end up selling its rights in The Hobbit:

Meanwhile, speculation continues about whether the studio will sell off its share of rights to “The Hobbit” to co-production partner Warner Bros., whose New Line is overseeing project development with director Peter Jackson; shooting is set to begin in January. MGM executives would like to hold onto its share of the “Hobbit” rights as long as possible, but some lenders are lobbying for a sell-off to raise funds.

The story also points out that although a sale of MGM has seemed unlikely, Time Warner still has a pending bid in: “Before its restructuring talks, MGM held an auction that drew a handful of underwhelming offers to buy the studio outright. Warners placed a top bid of $1.5 billion that was deemed too low by lenders but remains on offer.”

I would think that allowing the Hobbit project to fail would cause a pretty serious decline in MGM’s value, since its share in the rights to the novel’s adaptation is one of its main assets. MGM’s owners reportedly have been holding out for a bid of $2 billion before they would consider selling–but maybe the studio wouldn’t be worth that if there were no Hobbit on the horizon. (Presumably no potential buyer thinks that even with the Hobbit project the studio is worth $2 billion, since no offer approaching that was forthcoming.)

On July 3, Ian McKellen caused a stir by mentioning on a morning talk show in New Zealand that he is not firmly committed to playing Gandalf. (The interview is posted on TheOneRing.net.) Further delays might cause him to move on to other projects: “Frankly, I would like to race after doing Waiting For Godot, get on with doing another play but we’ll have to see. I don’t give the producers the impression that I’m sitting waiting.”

Today stuff.co.nz posted a story about how the lack of major film projects in Wellington is causing some filmmaking talent to move elsewhere, notably to long-term contracts on television projects in Auckland. It includes this interesting quotation:

Jackson’s spokesman, Matt Dravitzki, said: “We are working very hard to get The Hobbit made.

“In the event that The Hobbit did not go ahead, [Jackson's] Wingnut Films has a number of other projects in development. Tintin is currently in post-production at Weta Digital and the second Tintin film will be shot in Wellington in the future.”

That might be of comfort to people in Wellington who need filmmaking jobs, but it certainly sounds ominous to those interested in seeing The Hobbit get made.

Of course, there is always the possibility of bringing in film personnel from elsewhere. Australians frequently work on Kiwi films, as when cinematographer Andrew Lesnie shot the LOTR trilogy. And although film productions are required to try and hire New Zealanders and people from abroad with work permits, if no such people are available within the country, the studio can hire from outside. That process, if needed on a large scale, could easily cause further delays.

Ian said in his interview, “An announcement is imminent, but what it will be I genuinely don’t know. It’ll either be that we’re going ahead or that we’re not.” We have heard that sort of thing for a long time now. (Things seemed pretty rosy at Comic-Con last year, and now that event has nearly rolled around again, and we’re still waiting for a greenlight.) Let’s hope he’s right and that we’ll get some real news soon.

A short time ago Ian McKellen tweeted twice:

1. The films will get made. I suspect we’ll start shooting at end of this year. about 4 hours ago via web
2. “Hobbit” sets are ready, script ready and movie is casting this month. Fans are not to worry. about 4 hours ago via web

I try not to post rumors, but Ian is closer to the production than most. Plus I think we all need a little encouragement at this point. Though the end of the year seems a long way off.

Readers no doubt read the news the TheOneRing.net broke Sunday, revealing that Guillermo del Toro has decided to bow out of directing The Hobbit. The delays in getting the project greenlit by Warner Bros. and MGM were frustrating to a director who famously is used to working on several projects at the same time.

Today Stuff.co, the New Zealand news site, has a story on Peter Jackson’s interview with the Dominion Post:

“If that’s what I have to do to protect Warner Bros’ investment, then obviously that’s one angle which I’ll explore,” he said. But stepping in as director would be difficult as he had signed writer and director contracts with Hollywood studios for two other films, with one likely to begin next year. “The other studios may not let me out of the contracts.”

Peter made some comments about when filming might begin, in the light of this dramatic development:

Jackson said The Hobbit’s US$150 million budget was a ballpark figure, but it could be higher if it was filmed in 3-D.

Jackson said November was now the earliest start date for shooting, but it depended on finding the right director. “I just don’t know now until we get a new director. The key thing is that we don’t intend to shut the project down.

“We don’t intend to let this affect the progress. Everybody, including the studio, wants to see things carry on as per normal. The idea is to make it as smooth a transition as we can.”

Of course, the idea of Peter directing The Hobbit is an attractive one to fans, though I would hate to see him forced into doing so simply to save the project.

The stuff.co post has a good summary of the Hobbit situation and its background.

(Thanks to Paulo Pereira for sending me the stuff.co link.)

As many of you know, each spring I go off to Middle Egypt and do volunteer work on an expedition at the site of Tell el-Amarna. There I deal with the statuary fragments. I’ll be gone for four weeks. For internet access, all the members of the team share a single laptop with a pokey dial-up connection. I’m sure all sorts of news will break when I’m there (second script turned in? MGM’s situation resolved? film greenlit?), but I’m not sure I’ll be able to report or comment on it–though I’ll try! I trust TheOneRing.net and other sources to keep you informed. I’ll be back on the job at the end of April.

The media have created a lot of fuss over the past few days over the “June” and “July” dates posted on McKellen.com’s Hobbit entry as the start of shooting for the film.

Today the date of filming in that entry was changed to “at a time to be announced.”

Thus we are back to more-or-less where we were in December, waiting for a greenlight and some official announcements. I must say that this is why I try to avoid posting speculations on casting and start dates and so on. The July date seemed significant, but the official word will ultimately have to come from the studio.

Since my last post, the entry on The Hobbit in McKellen.com filmography has changed. Instead of predicting a June date for filming, it says July. Given that the brief run of Waiting for Godot in Wellington ends on July 2, it’s looking more as if the play’s tour has been timed to allow Ian to be on the spot just in time to don his Gandalf the Grey costume. Let’s hope.

The Dominion Post, Wellington’s local newspaper, has posted a short item on its website. It announces that:

Though the cast for Rings prequel The Hobbit has yet to be officially announced, Sir Ian has said that he will reprise the role of Gandalf the wizard and expects shooting to begin in June this year.

While in Wellington, Sir Ian will also perform in Samuel Beckett’s classic play Waiting for Godot at the St James Theatre from June 30.

I think some people are interpreting this to mean that Ian has just announced that The Hobbit will start shooting in June. My impression is that that information has been posted in his filmography on his website for some time now. (Did anybody notice when that date was added?) The entry also says the first script is finished and the second progressing, that Guillermo del Toro is in New Zealand, and so on, all information we have known for some months now. The release date is given as 201?, which suggests no breaking news.

The main point of the article is that Ian will be playing in Waiting for Godot in Wellington for four performances only, June 30 to July 2 at the St. James Theatre. That sounds as though it’s timed to allow Ian to be in New Zealand during June–but in fact he’s going to be performing the same play in Sydney’s Opera House from June 15 to 27.

Of course, there could be some filming involving Gandalf earlier in the month, or after the Wellington run, in July. But whether Ian’s scheduled presence in the Antipodes this summer is timed to coincide with the commencement of Hobbit shooting or is just a coincidence remains to be seen.

Having seen Godot during its first London run last June, I heartily recommend it to fans in Australia and New Zealand!

[March 17: Actually, Waiting for Godot is touring Australia beginning with Melbourne, May 6-23, then Perth, May 28 to June 3, on to Adelaide, June 9-11, and ending in Sydney, June 15-27. So no shooting involving Gandalf will go on during that period, it seems fair to assume. Not to say that there couldn't be filming with other characters, but we just don't have any information.]