Peter Jackson is currently in Germany doing publicity for The Lovely Bones. The German site Moviereporter is quoting him as saying this about the Hobbit filming (and I quote from the translation helpfully provided by TheOneRing.net):

“We’re currently working on the second script which we hope to have completed by the end of this year or beginning of next.  When the scripts are completed, we can begin with the exact calculation of the necessary budget.  We hope to start filming in the middle of next year. However, we’ve received no green light from the studio yet.”

This confirms what has become increasingly apparent as time went by without announcements about the project. With the second script in progress, it’s not surprising that principal photography would be delayed by perhaps four or five months from the originally announced launch in March.

[Dec 3: The Moviereporter link has gone dead; I leave it there in case the page is restored.]

Perhaps the announced release date for part one will remain December, 2011. Still, I find it difficult to believe that such a delay would not push back the release of the film. So much of the work going into a special-effects-heavy movie comes in the post-production stage, with CGI being a time-consuming task (as fans who have been through the supplements in the extended-version DVDs know).

We might remember that LOTR was not released when it was originally supposed to be. In August, 1998, when it took over production of the trilogy, New Line announced one year of principal photography to begin in mid-1999. In reality the shooting lasted for about 14 months and began in October, 1999. There were months of pick-up shots for all three parts. The original Christmas-summer-Christmas release pattern, which called for three massive films in a span of one year, was later changed to annual Christmas releases, or a two-year period. This sort of change isn’t uncommon in the industry, and a delay seems better than a rushed job.

Note: The Herr der Ringe website is announcing July as the start date. The author also speculates that the delay is due to MGM’s financial troubles. My own guess would be that it results from the second script not being finished yet. The full budget can’t be calculated without the full two-part script, and the studio won’t greenlight a film without knowing the budget. So far Warner Bros. has been covering expenses and can well afford to go on doing so for quite some time.

[December 1: Sharon Waxman is reporting that “executives close to the project” are saying that the first part will not come out until 2012. This remains a rumor at this point, but as I suggested above, it would not be surprising to see it confirmed.]

It has been nearly six years since the release of The Return of the King, but its international distributors still look back on the three years of the trilogy’s distribution as one of their most lucrative periods ever.

As I explained in Chapter 9 of The Frodo Franchise, LOTR was technically an independent film, produced by New Line, then an independent company. It was financed in the traditional indie way, through sales of distribution rights to independent distributors abroad and through licensing fees for the tie-in products. Although those distributors had to pay hefty fees up front, before the film had even been made, and although they were naturally nervous about the prospects for success, they ended up happy and rich.

Indeed, New Line was the biggest supplier for many of these independent distributors. When it got absorbed into Warner Bros. early last year, that source of supply dried up. About a year ago, I wrote an entry on “Observations on Film Art,” discussing the companies that were possibly stepping in to take New Line’s place. Among the companies I mentioned was a relative newcomer to the American distribution scene, Summit Entertainment. At that point Summit had only released a few insignificant films in the US, though it had been producing films since the mid-1990s. Its main claim to fame was a long and successful track record for selling American movies to distributors abroad.

Summit’s producing efforts got a big boost in 2006. Paramount famously put Twilight into turnaround early in the year, and in October a producer brought it to Summit. (For a good background account, see this LA Times story.) In late 2008, Twilight was slipped into the original November 21 slot that had been announced for Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince. Although it wasn’t as immediately successful as the second entry in the series has been, it built into a hit. After less than two weeks in distribution, The Twilight Saga: New Moon has made an estimated $230 million domestically and is a big hit abroad as well.

Mike Goodridge, the editor of Screen Daily, has pointed out that the Twilight phenomenon is in some ways parallel to that of the Rings trilogy:

When New Line Cinema was absorbed into Warner Bros in early 2008, many of the world’s leading independent distributors lost one of their key suppliers of Hollywood-level product. Companies such as Entertainment in the UK and Metropolitan in France had gone through good times and bad with New Line over the years, but when they were good, as in the case of The Lord Of The Rings trilogy, they were very, very good.

Goodridge cites some figures to back this up:

Seeing E1 Films in the UK take nearly $20m in the UK, SND in France scoring $17m, Eagle in Italy $14.3m and Aurum in Spain $13.7m last weekend brought back the heady days of The Lord Of The Rings openings. In Australia, Hoyts Distribution brought in $13.3m for the biggest opening ever in the territory. In New Zealand as well, it took the all-time crown, the $1.9m gross beating, you guessed it, The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King.

Aurum, by the way, only exists today because of its success with the trilogy.

In my book, I suggested that LOTR, despite being a blockbuster, was enormously beneficial to international independent and foreign-language cinema. Now the Twilight series looks like it will have a similar, sustained effect. According to Goodridge:

What The Lord Of The Rings proved and the Twilight Saga reaffirms is that this kind of independent success is good for everybody. The Twilight distributors will have more money to invest in financing and acquisitions, benefiting other independent productions, while sales companies struggling to get films off the ground in a turgid distribution world will hopefully encounter a renewed buoyancy in the international markets.

The parallel is even stronger if we recall that LOTR was picked up by New Line when it was put into turnaround by Miramax.

The Hobbit will extend the franchise, but it won’t bring the same benefit to foreign distributors. New Line no longer handles its own financing or distribution. Warner Bros. will finance the film (perhaps with help from MGM if that studio manages to survive and put its economic affairs in order) and will distribute the film. There will presumably be no presales to independent distributors abroad.

There’s presumably no causal connection between the trilogy and the parallel Twilight phenomenon. Still, it’s good to see a similar windfall going to independent cinema around the world.

I have to admit that I’ve never sat through the last part of the credits on the LOTR extended-edition DVDs. That’s the section where all the charter members of the official fan club had their names listed–including such notables as Elijah Wood. It takes 20 minutes for all those names to scroll by. I don’t know how many names there are, either, but there are a lot of people out there happy to have their names linked with the trilogy.

You’d think more studios would have done the same sort of thing with their DVDs, but it turns out that they haven’t–until now. Given how important online fans were to getting Paranormal Activity a theatrical release, Paramount announced that all fans who signed up at the film’s official website by November 9 would have their names  included at the end of the DVD. I’m not sure how long before November 9 the announcement was made. Stories hit the news media around November 5, as in this story in on Video Business.

The story compares Paramount’s offer to the LOTR one. For the epic LOTR, the 20 minutes was a relatively small section to add onto the end. For Paranormal Activity, which runs a mere 86-minutes, a long roll of fan names could be a big chunk of the DVD’s length.

More evidence that, although we’re coming up on the sixth anniversary of the release of the third part of the trilogy, the influence of LOTR doesn’t quit!

MGM has begun the process of sending out non-disclosure agreements to companies interested in bidding on its assets. The studio is setting up a secure online site where bidders can access its internal financial data.

Assets up for sale, apparently as a group, include, according to Variety, “the 4,000 title library, the logo, the United Artists operations, rights to the James Bond and Pink Panther franchises and half-ownership in the upcoming ‘Hobbit’ films.” The base price is said to be $1.5 billion, while Variety’s sources say the bidding will probably not top $2.5 billion.

Time Warner is considered to be the frontrunner. It has around $9 billion in cash on hand as a result of having recently spun off its cable systems. Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. and the distribution company Lionsgate are also possible bidders.

The story concludes, “For the time being, current MGM leadership will stay in place and production chief Mary Parent will continue to shepherd a small production and development slate. It remains co-financier with New Line on ‘The Hobbit,’ set to go into production around spring in New Zealand with two films shot back-to-back with Guillermo del Toro.

Lewis Bazley of the “In the News” website today broke the news that the first Hobbit script is finished. Peter Jackson made the announcement at a press conference which was part of the lead-up to the premiere of The Lovely Bones in England. He said that the script has been “delivered to the studio who seem to be happy with it.” (I presume “the studio” is Warner Bros., of which New Line is now a production unit.) The second script is roughly halfway finished.

Thus we seem to be at the point we thought we were at in August, though it’s certainly pleasant to get some concrete information after a period of silence from filmmakers and studio alike. The question remains, when will the studio(s) greenlight the film? They probably need to see the scripts of both halves of the film before making up the final budget–especially since the biggest action scenes (not counting whatever gets added concerning an attack on Dol Guldur) are in the late chapters of the book.

(Thanks, Mary Norton!)

Many of Guillermo del Toro’s fans may not be aware that last year he contributed an audio commentary to a DVD release of Carl Dreyer’s classic 1932 film, Vampyr. That has nothing to do with The Hobbit, so I have posted an entry on his commentary over on “Observations on Film Art.” Del Toro loves Vampyr and admits to being highly influenced by it. He also knows a great deal about the history of vampire films and makes some cogent remarks on the unique style of the film. Fans of del Toro, including visitors who come here from “Del Toro Films,” might be interested. I should mention that the DVD in question is from the excellent British company Eureka!, and it has region 2 coding.

On November 14 the LA Times posted an interview with Ian McKellen. It’s mostly to promote the AMC mini-series The Prisoner, but there are some passing remarks on playing Gandalf. That’s in LOTR; no mention of The Hobbit. There’s also news that there will be a brief revival of the Waiting for Godot stage production in which Ian co-starred early this year with Patrick Stewart. It’s a fantastic evening of theatre, and I recommend it highly.

I also realize now why Ian isn’t posting as often as he used to on his website. He’s on Facebook (a page also run by his webmaster, Keith Stern), adding material quite frequently. Check it out here and sign up as a fan if you’re so inclined.

Early this year, I announced the publication of a new anthology on the trilogy, Studying the Event Film: The Lord of the Rings. One of its editor, Harriet Margolis, was very hospitable to me during my research trips to New Zealand in preparation for The Frodo Franchise. We’ve kept in touch ever since.

This past week, Harriet attended a Q&A evening with Guillermo del Toro, held to support a local film project. Recording was not allowed, but Harriet took notes at a rapid pace and has kindly written up a blow-by-blow summary of what went on. more »

According to Variety, MGM has confirmed rumors that it is “beginning a process to explore various strategic alternatives including operating as a standalone entity, forming strategic partnerships and evaluating a potential sale of the company.”

To aid in the process, the lenders to whom MGM is considerably in debt have agreed again to suspend interest payments. The first suspension was due to expire on December 15, but now the studio has until January 31, 2010 to get its affairs in order.

Variety adds, “The announcement came with speculation mounting this week that MGM was heading toward an auction of assets, which include the 4,000-title library, the logo, rights to the James Bond franchise and half-ownership in the upcoming ‘Hobbit’ films.”

[Nov 16: Variety has added another story, with more details, here.]

Today Variety reports hearing from several sources that MGM may soon be auctioned off. That might mean breaking up the company and selling its assets separately. These include a huge library of around 4000 titles, such as Singin’ in the Rain and most of Greta Garbo’s films. The library is largely composed of older films, though, since MGM has not produced many successful movies in the past few decades. Other assets would include United Artists and the MGM logo itself, which still has huge brand recognition.

The article doesn’t mention two key assets: the rights to the Hobbit‘s theatrical distribution and to the James Bond franchise, though it does say that “there is still an expectation that Time-Warner might make a last eleventh hour bid.” If that happened, the Hobbit production and distribution rights, which got split up back in the 1970s, would finally again be owned by the same company.

There’s also still a possibility that MGM will go the route of declaring bankruptcy in order to preserve the existence of the company as a single entity. In that case, it might sell off the Hobbit and/or James Bond rights. Again, Time-Warner would be a likely buyer, at least of the Hobbit rights.

If MGM gets broken up and if some company other than Time-Warner acquires those rights, then I assume that company would be obligated to abide by the terms of the original contract. That would mean chipping in to help pay for The Hobbit‘s production. I can imagine, though, that an auction of MGM’s components could slow down the progress of the film’s production.

It sounds as though we’re likely to hear something soon, and I’ll keep track of developments for you.

(Business Week has a slightly different take on the situation here.)